A look back at Russian history of the last 100 years or so doesn’t promise good.
Like, at all.
There’s a clear correlation between an enthusiastic reaction of our nation to a new war and a very sad end to it. Consider the following:
Case 1. The Russian-Japanese war of 1904-’05
The start of the war is marked by a patriotic surge across the entire political spectrum. In the picture above, people rallies around the Imperial banners. Only few fringe revolutionaries opposed this.
Outcome: the war is lost in the most humiliating of ways.
Case 2. WW1 of 1914–1918
An even greater patriotic wave sweeps across Imperial Russia. In the picture above you see students of the St. Petersburg university in front of the Czar’s residence in the Winter Palace, singing “God Save the King!”. Everyone wants our glorious troops to annihilate the Teutonic barbarians. Lenin and a few other revolutionaries are totally isolated in their opposition to the war.
Outcome: a few years later, the Empire lies in smoking ruins. The Bolsheviks sign a “shameful” treaty of Brest-Litovsk with the Germans. The Czar is murdered along with his entire family.
Case 3. WW2 (or as we prefer to call it, the “Great Patriotic War of 1941–45”)
Hitler clashes with Stalin on June 22, 1941.
No patriotic demonstrations either in Moscow, or other places. No flag waving. As you can see in the photo above, the mood is somber, to say the least.
Moreover, within a few months, millions of Soviet soldiers choose to surrender to the Germans rather than die for Stalin.
Outcome: four years later, Germany is defeated, and the Soviet Union becomes a world superpower.
The same pattern can be seen in other episodes of our political history, too.
Case 4. The demise of the USSR
In August 1991, an anti-Gorbachev putsch is attempted in Moscow and swiftly defeated. The Communists are gone. Joyful crowds party in the streets. Everyone is excited.
Outcome: a couple years later, Russia’s parliament is bombarded by the new “democratic” rulers. The nation is robbed by a group of well-connected oligarchs. Presidential elections are rigged. In less than a decade, Russia is hit by another national bankruptcy.
Case 5. The KGB is back
December 1999. President Yeltsin puts a little-known man called “Putin who?” on the Kremlin throne. Everyone is tired from the chaos of the 1990s. The nation just shrugs off the news. The transfer of power is totally eclipsed by the Y2K scare and a New Year celebration that is a kind of a national day in our national calendar.
Outcome: In a matter of 15 years, the country is bulging with oil money. Russia pokes the US and NATO in the eye whenever it wants. We triumphantly annex a part of another country’s territory, and no one in the world can do anything about it. In America in 2016–2020, our President emerges as the ultimate king-maker—something no other nation managed since the American war of independence.
Now, do you see why I have a very bad feeling about patriotic flag-waving in Russia at the start of the war in Ukraine?
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