Sunday, May 29, 2022

Book 📚

 This dot represents an idea.

A line between dots represents a connection between ideas.

Reading books gives your brain more dots to work with.

Then, it helps you connect these dots.

The more connections you have, the more you understand the world around you.

Keep connecting the dots.

Keep reading books

Tuesday, May 24, 2022

Texas

 Bei Schüssen an einer Grundschule im US-Bei Schüssen an einer Grundschule im US-Bundesstaat Texas sind 18 Kinder getötet worden. Auch drei Erwachsene kamen bei dem Amoklauf ums Leben. Der mutmaßliche Täter wurde von Polizisten erschossen Texas sind 18 Kinder getötet worden. Auch drei Erwachsene kamen bei dem Amoklauf ums Leben. Der mutmaßliche Täter wurde von Polizisten erschosse

Monday, May 16, 2022

How will the 2023 Russian invasion of Ukraine end?


A look back at Russian history of the last 100 years or so doesn’t promise good.

Like, at all.

There’s a clear correlation between an enthusiastic reaction of our nation to a new war and a very sad end to it. Consider the following:

Case 1. The Russian-Japanese war of 1904-’05

The start of the war is marked by a patriotic surge across the entire political spectrum. In the picture above, people rallies around the Imperial banners. Only few fringe revolutionaries opposed this.

Outcome: the war is lost in the most humiliating of ways.


Case 2. WW1 of 1914–1918

An even greater patriotic wave sweeps across Imperial Russia. In the picture above you see students of the St. Petersburg university in front of the Czar’s residence in the Winter Palace, singing “God Save the King!”. Everyone wants our glorious troops to annihilate the Teutonic barbarians. Lenin and a few other revolutionaries are totally isolated in their opposition to the war.

Outcome: a few years later, the Empire lies in smoking ruins. The Bolsheviks sign a “shameful” treaty of Brest-Litovsk with the Germans. The Czar is murdered along with his entire family.


Case 3. WW2 (or as we prefer to call it, the “Great Patriotic War of 1941–45”)

Hitler clashes with Stalin on June 22, 1941.

No patriotic demonstrations either in Moscow, or other places. No flag waving. As you can see in the photo above, the mood is somber, to say the least.

Moreover, within a few months, millions of Soviet soldiers choose to surrender to the Germans rather than die for Stalin.

Outcome: four years later, Germany is defeated, and the Soviet Union becomes a world superpower.

The same pattern can be seen in other episodes of our political history, too.


Case 4. The demise of the USSR

In August 1991, an anti-Gorbachev putsch is attempted in Moscow and swiftly defeated. The Communists are gone. Joyful crowds party in the streets. Everyone is excited.

Outcome: a couple years later, Russia’s parliament is bombarded by the new “democratic” rulers. The nation is robbed by a group of well-connected oligarchs. Presidential elections are rigged. In less than a decade, Russia is hit by another national bankruptcy.


Case 5. The KGB is back

December 1999. President Yeltsin puts a little-known man called “Putin who?” on the Kremlin throne. Everyone is tired from the chaos of the 1990s. The nation just shrugs off the news. The transfer of power is totally eclipsed by the Y2K scare and a New Year celebration that is a kind of a national day in our national calendar.

Outcome: In a matter of 15 years, the country is bulging with oil money. Russia pokes the US and NATO in the eye whenever it wants. We triumphantly annex a part of another country’s territory, and no one in the world can do anything about it. In America in 2016–2020, our President emerges as the ultimate king-maker—something no other nation managed since the American war of independence.


Now, do you see why I have a very bad feeling about patriotic flag-waving in Russia at the start of the war in Ukraine?

Sunday, May 15, 2022

How can I overcome the fear of losing my money and start investing? If your sports team lose, does it feel worse than the joy of them winning?

 

How can I overcome the fear of losing my money and start investing?

If your sports team lose, does it feel worse than the joy of them winning?

Probably

If you go on holiday and 99.9% of people are nice to you or ignore you, but you get racially abused twice, would you assume the whole country is quite racist?

Probably

If you lose money will it feel worse than the thrill of making money?

This one is more than a probably. I know most people feel this way.

So many people lose out long-term due to this reason.

The reason I mention this is that it is human nature to have negativity bias.

That’s why the media make so much money from selling fear.

In terms of overcoming this aspect of human nature I would:

  1. Spend less time with negative people
  2. Spend even less time with negative and sensationalist media
  3. Do a lot of reading on common investment misconceptions. If you learn some basic facts like nobody has lost money investing in the major stock market indexes if they hold for decades, but loads of people have lost to inflation keeping money in the bank, then you will realize that you are fearing the wrong thing.
  4. As a result of number three, start fearing inaction. For example, what is 2% per year (the amount of money you lose to inflation in the bank in most countries) compounded over 5 years? How about 10 or 20 or 30 years? That is why inflation is the silent killer of wealth…….slow and steady.
  5. If the S&P500 and major indexes perform how they have done historically, how much money will you indirectly lose long-term?

If you think about things in this way, you won’t stop fearing things, as that is partly human nature.

You will just fear other things. For me, I would be very afraid of keeping a lot of money in the bank earning 0.1% at best, when inflation is running at 2% per year, and assets can do much better than that.

I would be even more afraid if my money was earning more but in most emerging market currency.

Friday, May 13, 2022

تحميل تطبيق سيمار كنوك 2022 نسخة مدفوع خاليه من الإعلانات المزعجة

  — اذا كنت من الأشخاص الذين يحبون تجربة كل جديد في عالم التطبيقات وخاصة التصميم والمونتاج وبرامج الخداع على الأصدقاء فإن هذا التطبيق قد يكون مفيدا جدا ...



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Book cover Death of the Black Widow Death of the Black Widow James Patterson & J.D. Barker 0 / 0 0 comments  Year: 2022 Publisher: Pengu...